What conversations at four major industry conferences signal about the apartment industry’s next phase.

After a busy fall conference season, one overarching message came through loud and clear: despite lingering uncertainty, the multifamily investment landscape is firmly on the path to stabilization.

Below are takeaways from more than 100 conversations with owners, developers, lenders, and equity groups at GlobeSt. Multifamily Fall, the MFE Conference, ULI Fall Meeting, and AHF Live. These discussions were far more grounded, data-driven, and optimistic than they were just 12 months ago. Rather than bracing for further disruption, the industry is actively recalibrating and absorbing new realities around rates, supply, deal fundamentals, and regulation.

National Investment Market Overview

Nationally, investors agree that the bottom of the cycle is behind us. What remains is the work of normalizing expectations and adapting to a new math that better reflects today’s cost of capital and operating realities.

  • Rate-shocked no more. While no one expects the 10-year Treasury to fall dramatically, a further drop to the 3.8% range won’t surprise anyone and would be a welcome trend. However, a 4.25% 10-year wouldn’t surprise the market either. In general, the relative stability of the bond market over the past several months has allowed investors to plan and transact more effectively.
  • The “wait-and-see” mindset is fading. Many groups that sat on the sidelines through 2023 and 2024 are beginning to re-engage, even if selectively. Rates are part of the equation, but internal rate of return (IRR) models are another factor forcing transactions. Anticipated increased rent growth in 2026 and 2027 (6% to 7% in some markets) allows for more favorable returns on a five- to seven-year hold.   
  • A disciplined approach. Capital is cautiously deploying. Investors have entered this cycle with disciplined underwriting and a focus on long-term fundamentals rather than chasing short-term returns. The most respected investors are thinking along the lines of longer hold periods with a “low teens” IRR, which is a realistic approach in this environment. Five-year deals with IRRs in the high teens? I’m going to need to see the footnotes — and something tells me the pro forma has a lot of them.
  • The development pipeline is thinning. This topic has been covered extensively, so I’ll keep it brief. After several years of elevated deliveries, new construction starts have dropped sharply, setting the stage for stronger fundamentals once the current supply is absorbed. This is another reason why a conservative IRR today may have outsized returns tomorrow.  However, not all markets reached peak deliveries at the same time.  Denver, Austin, and Phoenix were trailing most other markets and may have a longer absorption timeline. 
  • Evolving asset class preferences. High-quality A to B+ assets in strong locations are attracting the greatest numbers of offers, often from well-capitalized private buyers looking to take advantage of a transitional period in the market. In contrast, activity on C-class properties appears to be increasing, though concerns remain related to expense volatility, and slower rent growth. 
  • Shifting buyer profiles. Institutional buyers, once the dominant force in most major markets, remain largely on the sidelines for now. Many continue to underwrite offerings but are waiting for clearer signals around pricing and return profiles. In their absence, private capital — family offices, high-net-worth investors, and long-term investment funds — is driving much of today’s activity.  I expect this metric to change as we progress through the new year.   
  • Misguided regulatory headwinds. Regulation remains one of the largest challenges facing the industry. Rent control, vacancy control, and expanded tenant protections continue to grow (as have operating costs) across major metros. This is shaping both underwriting and long-term feasibility – and may ultimately limit need development and make markets less affordable. Right of first refusal (ROFR) programs are also adding friction to transactions, which often leads to higher asking prices or altered underwriting to compensate for the risk. Many investors are steering clear of markets with existing regulatory burdens or the potential for increased regulation.

Regional Market Insights

As national sentiment stabilizes, the real differences—both challenges and momentum—become most visible at the regional level. Across markets, the story is less about broad macro shifts and more about how local dynamics, policy environments, and supply pipelines are shaping investor confidence.

For example, California continues to command a lot of attention. This was partly due to where the major conferences were held, but mostly because sentiment there has improved more than many expected. In San Francisco, investors are responding favorably to new mayoral leadership focused on improving public safety and operational accountability. Paired with the surge of AI-driven economic activity and several years of limited construction, the Bay Area is regaining attention from regional and national firms. Los Angeles remains marked by high occupancy and minimal new supply, which is keeping fundamentals balanced. Importantly, many operators noted that the widely repeated narrative of out-migration from the Eaton and Palisades fires — while dramatic in headlines — does not align with the realities they see on the ground.

In the Lower Midwest, markets such as Columbus, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Louisville, and Kansas City have caught the attention of institutional and sophisticated private investors who may have previously written these areas off. This interest appears driven by a mix of more achievable pricing and the need to place capital in markets that still offer runway. Whether this shift becomes permanent remains to be seen, but these markets are clearly benefiting from increased visibility.

The Sunbelt and Southeast, while still positioned for long-term strength, are working through a meaningful wave of deliveries. Markets like Tampa and Charlotte appear softer today, but they are past peak deliveries, and that softness is more a reflection of near-term demand uncertainty than structural oversupply. Meanwhile, Austin, Denver, and Phoenix are digesting the peak of their delivery cycles. Vacancies remain elevated, and rent growth is subdued, but the expectation is that fundamentals will gradually strengthen as supply is absorbed over the coming quarters.

Conclusion

Taken together, insights from this year’s multifamily conference circuit point to an industry that has moved beyond crisis response and into a new phase of disciplined normalization. Investors are underwriting with clearer eyes, pricing risk more accurately, and focusing on fundamentals rather than momentum.

Looking ahead, the primary wild card is Washington. With funding for most federal government agencies expiring at the end of January, there is still high potential for policy uncertainty to ripple through capital markets — particularly if prolonged negotiations disrupt rates, sentiment, or liquidity. But most investors I spoke with view this as a near-term headline risk rather than a structural threat.

If anything, the industry’s resilience over the past 18 months has reinforced a broader point: multifamily remains a durable asset class, and disciplined operators are well-positioned for the next leg of the cycle.