With a new year comes a new chapter for multifamily, as shifting economic conditions, a recalibrating supply/demand imbalance, evolving renter preferences, and equity challenges are reshaping the landscape. What key trends should industry participants focus on as 2026 unfolds? What opportunities may emerge and how can owners, developers, and operators position themselves for success?

These questions drove the conversation during a recent 2026 outlook webcast hosted by Multi-Housing News (MHN) featuring Tyler Griffin, president of mortgage banking at Lument, the Mortgage Banker Association (MBA) senior vice president Jamie Woodwell, NMHC president Sharon Wilson Géno, Alex Valente, a principal at Trammell Crow Co., and Mike Miner, head of investment sales at Berkadia.

Panelists agreed that at some point in 2026, deal velocity will accelerate meaningfully, as there is plenty of pent-up demand and capital ready to be deployed. The wide-ranging conversation covered absorption rates, construction starts and completions, and the pending supply cliff — key factors that will influence the pace and scale of the acceleration.

The debt side of the equation currently offers borrowers a wide range of solid options. The agencies continue to offer favorable terms while banks and other sources remain active. Obtaining equity can be a challenge, however, and this is something to be monitored as 2026 unfolds.

The limited impact of peak-cycle unit deliveries in most MSAs and a 10-Year Treasury holding steady in the 4.00% to 4.25% range have helped the landscape, panelists agreed. Lending is up, and every type of capital is looking to invest in multifamily, with loan volume predicted at $400+ billion next year, according to the MBA.

One bright spot, noted Lument’s Griffin, has been the recent return of longer loan terms, which is a sign of growing investor confidence. “Up until about six months ago, we were seeing mostly five- and seven-year term loans, but now we’re starting to get back to longer term, 10-year transactions, which means investors are seeing stability not only with asset performance but with interest rates,” said Griffin. “The idea of waiting to see if rates go down is going away.”

Regarding the 10-Year Treasury, Griffin emphasized the importance of evaluating the yield curve as a whole, noting that while the front-end rates have moved lower, pressure remains on the long end.

“We pay close attention to the long end of the curve, and the concern is whether unresolved macro issues — such as deficit and trade dynamics — will allow for meaningful relief on the 10-Year,” Griffin said. “I’m not sure the answer is yes right now. That said, the decline on the front end of the curve has been great; it means you can do some capex, get rehab going again, pursue acquisitions with upside — all of which are very important in getting our industry up and back moving.”

Other webcast topics included the bipartisan focus on housing in Washington, recent improvements to Federal Housing Administration (FHA) programs, the pros and cons of oversupply, rent trends, and more.

Watch the full webcast recording here.