Lument recently concluded a busy winter conference circuit, with teams on the ground at CREFC in Miami, NMHC in Las Vegas, and MBA CREF in San Diego. Across all three gatherings, the prevailing tone was one of cautious optimism: capital is available, transaction discipline remains high, and participants are increasingly looking at 2026 as a more active year.
While each conference carried its own emphasis, several themes consistently surfaced.
A Deeper Lending Bench
At CREFC, the message was clear: liquidity has returned to the market, and it is coming from multiple sources. The agencies — bolstered by increased FHFA volume caps — continue to play a central role in multifamily, while banks are increasingly pursuing relationship-driven business, and debt funds remain highly active.
The result is a deeper and more competitive lending environment, giving borrowers more options as they navigate loan maturities, recapitalizations, and new acquisitions.
“Liquidity has returned in force, and it’s layered,” said Rick Warren, head of real estate capital markets at Lument. “Agencies, banks, life companies, and debt funds are all active — with growing crossover in their lanes. The edge is less about finding capital and more about choosing a lender that can navigate and clear the full market.”
Positive Sentiment, Disciplined Execution
At NMHC, investor sentiment was positive — but notably more grounded than in prior years.
Last year, many market participants were operating under the expectation that interest rates would fall and rent growth would accelerate. Those assumptions largely failed to materialize. As a result, this year’s conversations reflected a market that has recalibrated.
Even with improved debt availability, equity remains measured. Multifamily is no longer viewed as a low-risk investment by default. While the sector’s long-term fundamentals remain favorable, elevated operating expenses and ongoing new deliveries in certain markets are influencing underwriting assumptions and investment decisions.
Buyers have largely adjusted their expectations around pricing, rent growth, and financing costs. Sellers, while slower to move initially, are increasingly becoming more realistic as well.
“The conversations in the hallways of NMHC have clearly shifted this year. Where uncertainty once dominated, we’re now seeing more grounded, execution-oriented dialogue across owners, capital providers, and advisors alike,” said John Sebree, head of real estate investment sales at Lument. “People are talking about how to transact and where the opportunities are — not if they should start. That’s a notable evolution in behavior.”
Looking Ahead: Debt Trends in Focus
MBA CREF reinforced the forward-looking outlook for commercial real estate finance. Forecasts suggest that multifamily origination volume is on pace to increase to the $400 billion range in 2026, up 21% from $331 billion in 2025.
Much of that activity will be driven by maturities, as roughly 17% of existing CRE and multifamily loans are expected to mature this year ($875 billion). As borrowers confront loans originated during the low-rate cycle, many are prioritizing flexibility over long-term certainty. Shorter loan terms, extension options, and more adaptable capital structures are becoming increasingly common as lenders and borrowers position themselves to manage rate uncertainty while preserving future refinancing opportunities.
“Shorter terms and smarter, more flexible structures aren’t a sign of hesitation — they’re the playbook for staying active, managing uncertainty, and keeping capital moving throughout 2026,” said Tyler Griffin, president of mortgage banking at Lument.
From Mantras to Momentum
The conference circuit also produced its now-customary collection of market mantras. Last year’s refrain — “Survive ’til ’25” — has officially been retired. In its place, a new phrase began circulating at NMHC: “It’ll fix in ’26,” reflecting the growing belief that sidelined investors may finally begin transacting or recapitalizing next year. By the end of the conference, some attendees were already extending the optimism further: “It’ll be heaven in ’27.”
Clever phrasing aside, the broader takeaway across the conferences was more substantive. Investors are increasingly ready to move beyond rhyming forecasts and back toward execution. Capital is available, underwriting assumptions have adjusted to current realities, and transaction momentum is gradually rebuilding.
